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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."